There’s a new way to bet on real estate.
Now you can bet real money on whether home prices in a specific city will finish up or down during a certain month, quarter, or year.
Welcome to the world of prediction markets, where you can place trades on future outcomes.
Today, I’ll explain how you could potentially make (or lose) a lot of money on this. Then I’ll show you a better way to make predictions on the future — and a better way to make money.
What Are Prediction Markets, and Who’s Winning the Race?
Prediction markets are online platforms where people buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of future events. These events could be election results, weather, GDP announcements, housing markets, or virtually anything else.
You can buy a YES or NO contract on a specific outcome. If your prediction comes true, you collect; if it doesn’t come true, you get nothing.
In the past few years, two platforms have emerged:
Polymarket: Polymarket is the biggest crypto-native prediction market. It operates on a blockchain and was previously blocked from U.S. users until it secured regulatory pathways late in 2025. Investors are excited about it. Its funding in early 2026 pushed its valuation into the $12–$15 billion range.
Kalshi: Kalshi is Polymarket’s regulated sibling. Based in the U.S. and overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi’s contracts are treated as financial derivatives in the eyes of regulators. Its growth has been explosive: from a $2 billion valuation in mid-2025 to $5 billion by late 2025, and now there are reports of an $11 billion valuation.
Both platforms have gone from niche communities to mainstream speculation engines, with billions in trading volume and growing institutional interest.
And this year, they’ve expanded the markets users can trade…
Polymarket’s New Real Estate Prediction Markets
Polymarket recently launched a suite of real estate prediction markets in partnership with Parcl, a blockchain real-estate data provider.
Here’s how it works:
- Parcl provides daily housing price indices for major U.S. cities like Austin, Miami, New York City, and San Francisco, as well as a national index.
- Polymarket then lists prediction markets where traders can place positions on whether home prices in those cities will be up or down over defined time periods — monthly, quarterly, or annually.
- Contracts settle using independent data from Parcl, and minimum positions can be tiny — sometimes as little as $1.
You don’t own property, you don’t need a mortgage, and you don’t need to fix toilets at 3 a.m. You just trade a contract that reflects the collective belief about future prices.
On the surface, it sounds brilliant: democratizing access and letting anyone play the housing market without the capital barriers of traditional real estate investing.
But there are some real risks here…
The Risks: Gambling, Regulation, and Market Fragility
Placing bets on prediction markets feels a lot like gambling — because in many ways it is.
Critics argue these platforms are just sophisticated casinos with fancy data feeds and appealing interfaces. Prices can move wildly, liquidity can dry up, and if you’re on the wrong side of a crowded trade, losses can pile up fast.
There’s also regulatory uncertainty. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi operate in gray areas — sometimes treated as gambling, sometimes as financial derivatives — and state and federal regulators are still figuring out where they fit. Enforcement actions, cease-and-desist orders, and debates over insider trading rules are becoming common themes.
Plus, there’s the brittle nature of the markets themselves: liquidity can be thin, information advantages can skew results toward the well-informed, and resolution mechanics aren’t always intuitive for newcomers.
We’re not here to opine on whether these markets are morally good or bad. We’re here to talk about financial potential. But still, this leads to a real question:
Why make bets on Polymarket when you can “bet” on startups instead?
Why Startups Might Be a Better Bet
If you’re excited by the idea of putting capital to work on future outcomes, and you’re interested in high-upside opportunities, here’s why startup investing deserves your attention:
- Early Access to the Most Exciting New Sectors: Tech, biotech, AI, gaming, space exploration — even platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi themselves. Startups are the entry point to tomorrow’s biggest industries.
- Diversification: Rather than concentrating your risk on binary outcomes in one niche (like housing prices), startup portfolios can span sectors, stages, and geographies. Furthermore, when stocks zig, startups can still zag, so they can offer invaluable diversification for your overall portfolio.
- The Returns: According to Cambridge Associates, venture-backed startups have delivered around 58% per year over the last 25 years, dwarfing traditional asset classes including stocks.
Startups aren’t easy money — far from it. But they put risk capital where it can create generational wealth, not just a thrill for the next quarter’s forecast.
Wrapping It Up
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are redefining how everyday investors think about future outcomes — including something as fundamental as home prices. They’re fast, they’re innovative, and they’re risky in equal measure.
But betting on tomorrow isn’t just about predicting a number on an index.
It’s about putting your capital where growth, innovation, and opportunity are happening — and for many investors, that means investing in startups!
Happy investing
Best Regards,
Founder
Crowdability.com
