My neck hurts.
I watched SpaceX stock rocket higher after its massive IPO, only to see it tumble 12% in a single week. And as I’m writing this now, it’s down 36% from its peak.
Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are falling over themselves with sky-high “BUY” ratings and price targets that would make the company worth more than entire countries. It’s the kind of optimism that feels... familiar. And it reveals why independence matters more than ever.
Matt Milner here at Crowdability. For more than a decade, we’ve been digging into private-market opportunities with one simple rule: maintain our independence.
That’s why we’re not compensated by any of the companies we write about, or by any of the platforms where you make your investments. Thanks to that independence, we can call things straight every time. It’s the foundation of everything we do.
The SpaceX Hype-Machine
SpaceX officially joined the Nasdaq 100 last week under new fast-track rules that slashed the trading-history requirement and dropped the public float minimum. The stock drew a flood of new analyst coverage.
Of the 32 analysts now covering it, only one issued a “sell” rating — and it came from CFRA Research, an independent firm with no investment banking, asset management, or trading arms.
The rest? Hugely optimistic. Raymond James’ Brian Gesuale set a $800 price target. That implies the stock will surge over 400% in 12-18 months, pushing SpaceX’s market cap to $10.5 trillion. That’s roughly one-third of U.S. GDP, and more than the combined stock markets of the U.K., France, and Germany.
Morgan Stanley’s target sits at $300 (about double current levels), with a bull case of $600 and bear case of $75. In other words: It could crater 50% or explode 300%. Helpful, right?
Why Banks See Green When Others See Red
Research consistently shows that analysts tend to bias recommendations upward — especially when their banks have business ties to the company. This was glaring during the dot-com bubble. Remember Enron? Just months before its collapse, 16 of 17 sell-side analysts rated it “buy” or “strong buy” — many from banks that profited from Enron’s deals.
Post-bubble reforms made it illegal for investment banking to directly influence research. But studies show affiliated analysts still hesitate on pessimistic calls. Optimism pays: More bullish analysts climb the ranks at top firms and get more access to company calls.
Look at SpaceX. The analysts whose banks helped take it public were uniformly bullish — 100% “buy” ratings. Among the 17 unaffiliated analysts, only 65% went with buy.
And some broader context: In the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF, just 2% of holdings carry a net “sell” recommendation. The structural incentive is clear — issuing a “sell” risks losing future IPO underwriting fees.
The Regulatory Rollercoaster
The SEC tried to address this in 2003 with rules separating research from banking divisions. Seven months ago, those protections were rolled back.
As former SEC Chair Arthur Levitt warned in The Wall Street Journal: “The SEC May Make Wall Street Analysts Corrupt Again.” He highlighted the real danger of letting those old conflicts creep back in.
We learned from the dot-com era that optimism bias runs deep. Regulations can help, but they don’t erase incentives entirely.
What True Independence Looks Like
At Crowdability, we don’t underwrite IPOs. We don’t manage assets. And we don’t chase banking fees. My mission — and our reputation — is built on spotting the very best opportunities for you, backed by a long-term track record we’re very proud of.
That independence means I can tell you when hype looks overblown, even on exciting names like SpaceX. It means digging past the consensus to find value.
Trust — But Verify Independently
SpaceX is an incredible company that’s pushing humanity forward.
But sky-high price targets from conflicted analysts deserve scrutiny — especially when the stock is already pulling back, and when independent voices are far more measured.
In a world full of incentives pulling research one way, true independence is your best filter. That’s what we deliver week after week: unfiltered analysis to help you make smarter moves.
If you’re tired of the hype and want straightforward insight into the most promising opportunities, I hope you’ll stick with us.
We’ve been at this for years because it works — for you.
