There you were, scrolling through stock tickers this week, and boom — you saw SpaceX (SPCX) exploding higher.
After the biggest IPO in history, Elon’s rocket company is now valued at about $2.6 trillion.
Friends are texting you: “You in?” FOMO punches you in the gut.
It feels like we’re watching history. But after decades of experiencing these moments first-hand, here’s what I’ve learned:
Peak hype is rarely the best entry point. Today, I’ll walk you through why I’d hold off on buying SpaceX right now — and what the smarter play looks like instead.
The Hype Is Real
Let’s start with the sizzle, because SpaceX has plenty of it.
Revenue from Starlink jumped from basically nothing in 2021 to $11.4 billion in 2025, with millions of subscribers across 160 countries. It’s powering remote internet, airlines, and governments. The edge from owning its own launches gives it real synergy that competitors like Amazon’s Project Kuiper will struggle to match.
Then there’s Starship, its bet on fully reusable heavy-lift rockets that could slash launch costs and open entirely new markets — from point-to-point Earth travel to Mars ambitions. And the xAI/Grok/X integration adds an AI angle with massive projections.
Elon remains the ultimate showman, and investors love betting on his vision. As venture capitalist Packy McCormick put it, SpaceX is a true “Scarce Asset” in a world drowning in commoditized public tech stocks. You can’t easily replicate it, and that scarcity feeds into a premium valuation.
No one is saying the company lacks long-term potential. “Never bet against Elon” has been solid advice for a long time.
But here’s the rub…
But This Is Peak Hype, Peak Demand
You’re not buying the private company anymore. You’re buying the ticker at what looks like maximum enthusiasm.
SpaceX priced at $135, popped to close around $161 on debut day, and kept climbing — pushing the market cap well over $2 trillion despite 2025 revenue of just $18.7 billion, a $4.9 billion net loss, and negative free cash flow of $13.8 billion. That’s roughly 112x sales for a company still burning cash in two of its three segments.
Underwriters like Goldman Sachs painted rosy pictures — $474 billion in revenue by 2030, with AI somehow driving most of it. But top independent analysts like Morningstar and Aswath Damodaran see it differently. Morningstar says it’s worth about $780 billion. Damodaran says $1.3 trillion. This isn’t subtle.
As a student of history, I’m screaming caution here:
Across 30 major IPOs, the average maximum drawdown within the first year was about 55%. Think Twitter (-60%), Robinhood (-80%), or even strong names like Cisco and Snowflake that eventually delivered as businesses, but killed early public investors with 70% to 90% drops from peak.
We’re also in a monster supply wave. 2026 could see more than $400 billion in IPO issuance. That’s triple the record year of 2021. This is Econ 101. When supply floods in, prices eventually adjust.
Recent venture-backed IPOs since 2025 have mostly underperformed the Nasdaq. Once private scarcity turns into a public ticker, the narrative gets “compressed” into spreadsheets and peer multiples. SpaceX may stay scarcer longer thanks to its moat and Elon’s platform, but the dynamic still applies.
The Smarter Play: Wait for the Hype to Fade
To be clear, this doesn’t mean SpaceX is a bad company or a bad long-term investment.
Many of those 55%-drawdown IPOs recovered and thrived. Longer-term outcomes like Amazon or Nvidia are certainly possible here.
But buying at peak greed, when every fund manager on Earth is fighting for shares, is usually a loser’s game. The IPO pop is often the show.
Wait for the lock-up expirations, the reality check, and — if it comes — a period where fear outweighs greed. That’s when you can reassess with clearer eyes and stake your ground with a better margin of safety.
In the meantime, the real asymmetry in innovation investing still lives in the private market. At Crowdability, that’s where we focus: finding vetted private opportunities where the upside hasn’t been fully discovered yet.
SpaceX has already delivered life-changing returns for those who got in early. For the rest of us, patience isn’t just a virtue here — it’s the edge.
Happy investing,
Founder
Crowdability.com
