When it comes to making money for my readers — or saving them from losses — I love being able to say, “I told you so!”
Back on June 17th, I told Crowdability readers to sit out the SpaceX IPO frenzy. No prophecy was required — just arithmetic and a healthy respect for price.
Today, with the company’s first earnings report set for Aug. 4, and a big insider lock-up period ending on Aug. 6, the case for patience looks even stronger.
If you followed my advice, you likely sidestepped a painful chunk of downside.
But if you didn’t follow my advice, here’s what’s coming — and why the next week matters.
No Crystal Ball Required
In my June 17th essay, I directly said, “don’t buy (yet).”
That was the core of my June piece. Here’s what’s happened since:
SpaceX shares peaked near $225.64 shortly after the IPO. But they were recently trading around $113 — a roughly 50% drop.
Even the IPO price of $135 sits above current levels, meaning many who bought at the offering are sitting on losses.
As I wrote back in June: “I’m not saying SpaceX is a bad company… I’m saying price matters.” That’s the bottom line for investors. Price determines risk more than story.
Here’s What I Laid Out in June — and Why it Worked
Back in June I pointed out three practical problems that create a classic “stampede” scenario: sky-high hype, a tiny float, and valuations that didn’t match fundamentals.
SpaceX was targeting valuations so rich they implied multiples few public companies justify: almost 94x revenue on projections that included large recent losses.
Combine that with only about 4% to 5% of shares initially available to trade and you get an explosive first-day bid for a tiny number of shares. The early buyers chase the tiny float, prices spike, the float widens later, and the crowd that bought late gets stuck. As I put it: “Even a remarkable company can lose you money if you pay too much for its shares.”
What’s Happening Now (Aug. 4 Earnings; Aug. 6 Lock-up Expiry)
Two calendar events should matter to anyone holding or considering SpaceX stock.
Aug. 4 — first public earnings report. SpaceX will report results publicly for the first time since its IPO. Earnings can move sentiment strongly.
Expect headline metrics, any revisions to guidance, and commentary on cash burn, launch cadence, and Starlink subscriber trends to get outsized attention. If results beat and management sounds confident, the stock can rally. If results disappoint or reveal higher-than-expected losses, the pop narrative can quickly reverse.
Aug. 6 — the big lock-up expiration. A large tranche of insider and pre-IPO shares becomes eligible to trade. Estimates suggest hundreds of millions of shares could enter the market, materially increasing the float and supply available to sellers.
Historically, large lock-up expirations create downward pressure as insiders and early shareholders take profits. Market makers and institutional desks will price in that potential supply ahead of time — meaning some of the decline, if any, may show up before Aug. 6.
Possible Scenarios (Short and Medium Term)
Best case: Earnings beat, guidance improves, and insiders largely hold their shares. That combination could absorb much of the new supply and push shares higher — though elevated valuation skeptics will still push back.
Base case: Mixed results and some selling when lock-up expires. The float increases, volatility spikes, and the market re-prices the company to a level that more closely reflects near-term cash dynamics and growth assumptions.
Worst case: Disappointing results and heavy selling from insiders. That could trigger a sustained re-rating and another leg lower, especially if broader market sentiment turns risk-off.
What This Means for Readers
If you followed my June advice, you avoided buying into a market-priced hype bubble.
My piece wasn’t a knock on SpaceX’s long-term potential — I said plainly: “Elon Musk built something remarkable.” The point was timing. Buying at an overpriced, tiny-float pop is an easy way to lose money even when the underlying company is excellent.
If you remain interested in SpaceX as a long-term idea, waiting for clearer financials and a normalized float makes sense. You’ll get a better price, clearer information, and a smaller chance of being trampled during an insider-selling wave.
Where Crowdability Fits into All This
Crowdability exists to help investors make calmer, math-first decisions in moments that feel like a stampede. We try to point out when the crowd’s excitement has outrun the numbers — and occasionally, that means saving readers money by recommending patience.
If you want more straight talk about private-market investing, IPOs, lock-up mechanics, and how to size risk when hype runs hot, we’ll keep doing the homework so you don’t have to.
Happy Investing
PS: If you missed my June piece, you can read it here »
